Fetching live data...
⚠ Trading paused — 2026-05-20
Do NOT place trades manually from these signals. The auto-executor is being built on openclaw (Aneep). Track record continues to log; execution returns when the server-side runner is live.
Open positions
| Live Polymarket positions (account holdings) |
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| Market | Side | Size | Avg ¢ | Cur ¢ | P&L |
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BTC live scan
| BTC — Polymarket vs Deribit fair |
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| Bucket | PM YES ¢ | Kate fair % | Δ YES (pp) | Liquidity |
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ETH live scan
| ETH — Polymarket vs Deribit fair |
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| Bucket | PM YES ¢ | Kate fair % | Δ YES (pp) | Liquidity |
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BTC above scan — over / under-priced
| BTC "above $K" — Polymarket YES vs Deribit fair P(spot > K) |
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| Threshold | PM YES ¢ | Kate fair % | Δ (pp) | Verdict | Liquidity |
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Δ = Kate fair − PM YES. Positive Δ ⇒ Polymarket is underpricing the "above" outcome (cheap YES); negative Δ ⇒ overpriced. ±2pp deadband = fairly priced.
ETH above scan — over / under-priced
| ETH "above $K" — Polymarket YES vs Deribit fair P(spot > K) |
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| Threshold | PM YES ¢ | Kate fair % | Δ (pp) | Verdict | Liquidity |
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Δ = Kate fair − PM YES. Positive Δ ⇒ Polymarket is underpricing the "above" outcome (cheap YES); negative Δ ⇒ overpriced. ±2pp deadband = fairly priced.
Edge Tracker — today's top 5
| Best 5 trades right now — ranked by EV% × win probability |
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| # | Trade | Entry ¢ | Win prob | EV% | Score |
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Universe: "above" markets (both sides) + band signals passing entry discipline — price 15–65¢, adjusted win prob ≥ 51%, net edge ≥ 5pp after cost. Win prob is the Deribit-implied probability haircut toward 50% (k=0.85, anti-overconfidence); EV% is expected ROI on capital at risk at that adjusted prob; Score = net edge × adjusted win prob. Mirrors the kate-runner execution limits.
Daily record & resolutions → live experiment from 3rd quarter, 2026
+2.61% in week one — a pace of ≈+12% monthly, ≈+280% annualized
Jun 30 – Jul 6 markets, realized: +$3.56 profit on $136.54 deployed · 27W / 11L markets (71% win) · 5 of 6 trading days positive.
Presumed yield compounds the first week’s realized return (×1.0261 weekly, capital recycled daily). One week of data — an extrapolation, not a promise.
| Live experiment — real-money results from the wallet ledger (Q3 2026) |
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| Day | Deployed | Returned | P&L | ROI | W / L |
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| Tue Jun 30 | $25.31 | $35.47 | +$10.16 | +40.1% | 7 / 0 |
| Wed Jul 1 | $20.35 | $10.00 | −$10.35 | −50.9% | 2 / 4 |
| Thu Jul 2 | $29.53 | $26.62 | −$2.91 | −9.9% | 5 / 3 |
| Fri Jul 3 | $18.02 | $20.00 | +$1.98 | +11.0% | 4 / 2 |
| Sat Jul 4 | $14.99 | $17.44 | +$2.45 | +16.3% | 3 / 0 |
| Sun Jul 5 | No trading — no same-day market |
| Mon Jul 6 | $28.35 | $30.57 | +$2.22 | +7.8% | 6 / 2 |
| Total | $136.54 | $140.10 | +$3.56 | +2.61% | 27 / 11 |
Realized results from the Polymarket wallet transaction ledger (export dated 2026-07-07), grouped by market date. The record opens with the June 30 markets, which resolved at 16:00 UTC — past midnight July 1 local time — the first resolutions of Q3. P&L per market = redemptions + sells − buys; losing positions expire worthless with no redemption row, so their full cost is captured. ROI = net P&L ÷ capital deployed into resolved markets. Unresolved (same-day) positions are excluded until they resolve. All exits so far were redemptions at resolution — no early sells fired. Updated manually from wallet exports; last updated 2026-07-07. Educational only — not financial advice.
Hedge desk — call & put spread trades
For each mispriced "above" market: if OVERPRICED the play is BUY NO hedged with a Deribit call spread (long lower strike, short the threshold) that pays if price breaks up; if UNDERPRICED the play is BUY YES hedged with a put spread (long upper strike, short the threshold) that pays if price breaks down. Max-EV is the unhedged leg; ~99%-win adds the spread, sized so its $1 payoff offsets the loss leg. Deribit legs use the next-day 08:00 UTC expiry, closed at Polymarket resolution (~16:00 UTC) — the option's residual time value at that moment is why it's ~99%, not 100%. When the spread debit exceeds the edge, no near-riskless lock exists and the desk says so rather than inventing one. Educational only — not financial advice.